If the US dollar index continues to strengthen, the tin price may remain in the doldrums [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the afternoon of September 19, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract opened lower and trended downward, remaining in the doldrums. The contract opened at 268,270 yuan/mt, dipped during the session, and was tentatively reported at 268,840 yuan/mt by midday, down 1,400 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. Domestic market sentiment remained cautious, with trading activity driven mainly by rigid demand, and spot market transactions were lukewarm. Overnight, LME tin came under significant pressure, with tin futures closing at $33,750/mt, down $640 from the previous day, a decline of 1.86%. Trading volume stood at 1,215 lots, while open interest fell by 2.09 million lots, indicating some capital chose to exit.

From a macro perspective, after the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, Chairman Powell made it clear that the rate cut was a "risk management" measure rather than the start of an easing cycle. This relatively hawkish statement significantly dampened market expectations for consecutive rate cuts within the year. The US dollar index subsequently strengthened, firmly reclaiming the 97 level, putting broadly downward pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. Falling international oil prices further weighed on overall commodity market sentiment, as capital shifted from high-risk assets to safe havens like the US dollar, exacerbating the downward pressure on tin prices.

Overall, the SHFE tin market is dominated by a weak supply-demand dynamic. Although low inventory provides underlying support for prices, macro pressures and the reality of the demand off-season continue to be the main constraints in the near term. In the afternoon session, the market will need to closely monitor capital flows and changes in expectations regarding overseas central bank policies. If the US dollar index continues to strengthen, tin prices may extend their weak and range-bound trend.